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Earthquake in California·closes in 113mo

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

YES means Before 2035

24h volume
1.36
27.3k lifetime
Open interest
14.3k
−0.09 over 7d
Spread
3¢
5 × 152 at the touch
24h range
34¢ – 35¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%+1

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 68¢

YES bid / ask
32¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 68¢
24h low 34¢24h high 35¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10060¢
  • ask2659¢
  • ask10055¢
  • ask9750¢
  • ask38547¢
  • ask10046¢
  • ask14543¢
  • ask15235¢
spread3¢mid 34¢
  • bid532¢
  • bid1931¢
  • bid1528¢
  • bid6927¢
  • bid12526¢
  • bid1,01225¢
  • bid4824¢
  • bid10023¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 21, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2035 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago35¢1.36bought yes
2d ago34¢0.5bought yes
2d ago34¢14bought yes
3d ago34¢1.45bought yes
7d ago31¢1bought no
10d ago35¢1bought no
10d ago35¢4bought no
10d ago31¢47bought no
10d ago35¢5bought no
10d ago32¢15bought no
11d ago42¢1bought yes
11d ago42¢2.95bought yes
11d ago43¢18bought yes
11d ago27¢5bought no
11d ago26¢18bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.