galdor.xyz
Admin
Earthquake in California·closes in 111mo

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

YES means Before 2035

24h volume
2,748
31.9k lifetime
Open interest
13.8k
−719 over 7d
Spread
4¢
10 × 23 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 26¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%−4

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 83¢
24h low 11¢24h high 26¢
Recent buying16% YES · 84% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volOct 29Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18633¢
  • ask12532¢
  • ask23231¢
  • ask31130¢
  • ask2629¢
  • ask13223¢
  • ask57522¢
  • ask2321¢
spread4¢mid 19¢
  • bid1017¢
  • bid1116¢
  • bid10315¢
  • bid38714¢
  • bid75613¢
  • bid31712¢
  • bid15111¢
  • bid59510¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 21, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2035 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 16% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago18¢10bought yes
2h ago16¢5bought yes
2h ago22¢8.65bought yes
2h ago20¢14bought yes
2h ago22¢46bought yes
2h ago21¢25bought yes
2h ago16¢5bought yes
2h ago18¢9.74bought yes
2h ago21¢79bought yes
2h ago20¢53bought yes
2h ago19¢29bought yes
2h ago22¢3.45bought yes
2h ago22¢7.08bought yes
6h ago14¢11bought no
20h ago20¢9.46bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.