Ukraine elections·closes in 3mo

Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
405
16.4k lifetime
Open interest
1,510
−1,304 over 30d
Spread
1 × 1,005 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 16¢
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%+4

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 87¢
24h low 15¢24h high 16¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢10¢20¢30¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask35496¢
  • ask3195¢
  • ask15287¢
  • ask1486¢
  • ask127¢
  • ask10026¢
  • ask119¢
  • ask1,00518¢
spreadmid 16¢
  • bid113¢
  • bid512¢
  • bid1011¢
  • bid1,00010¢
  • bid15
  • bid91
  • bid98
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ukraine holds a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 27 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago15¢3bought yes
5h ago16¢402bought yes
1d ago12¢10bought yes
1d ago12¢5bought yes
1d ago12¢1bought yes
2d ago5bought yes
2d ago10¢5bought no
2d ago5bought no
2d ago3bought no
2d ago1,000bought no
3d ago18¢5bought no
3d ago23¢5bought no
7d ago24¢5bought yes
7d ago25¢32bought yes
9d ago15¢1,000bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.