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Ukraine elections·closes in 16mo

Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
2,339 lifetime
Open interest
1,492
+0 over 24h
Spread
7¢
5 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
78%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
22%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 78¢
Recent buying9% YES · 91% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 4:16 AMSep 20, 11:30 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,87499¢
  • ask4,28098¢
  • ask4,04097¢
  • ask32796¢
  • ask11889¢
  • ask1075¢
  • ask1,00029¢
spread7¢mid 26¢
  • bid522¢
  • bid1,00521¢
  • bid910¢
  • bid3206¢
  • bid694¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ukraine holds a presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 9% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago28¢5bought yes
1d ago78¢0.06bought yes
1d ago28¢5bought yes
9d ago23¢318bought no
9d ago24¢5bought no
20d ago28¢40bought yes
20d ago31¢35bought yes
20d ago26¢5bought yes
20d ago27¢15bought yes
20d ago29¢5bought yes
23d ago29¢1,000bought no
23d ago30¢5bought no
23d ago36¢17bought yes
23d ago30¢9bought yes
1mo ago29¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.