Ukraine elections·closes in 28mo

Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
904 lifetime
Open interest
357
+2.46 over 30d
Spread
5 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
4 recent trades
Chance of YES
58%

A YES contract costs 58¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
42%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 58¢
NO bid / ask
42¢ / 49¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3598¢
  • ask6697¢
  • ask1,00058¢
spreadmid 55¢
  • bid551¢
  • bid1,00050¢
  • bid27
  • bid35
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ukraine holds a presidential election before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-29JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 4 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
29d ago58¢2.46bought yes
29d ago57¢6bought yes
2mo ago52¢1bought no
2mo ago56¢346bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.