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Ukraine elections·closes in 40mo

Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
0
1,207 lifetime
Open interest
152
+0 over 7d
Spread
7¢
6 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
71%

A YES contract costs 79¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
29%

costs 28¢

YES bid / ask
72¢ / 79¢
NO bid / ask
21¢ / 28¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25099¢
  • ask17398¢
  • ask1,00079¢
spread7¢mid 76¢
  • bid672¢
  • bid1,08171¢
  • bid170¢
  • bid566¢
  • bid483¢
  • bid352¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ukraine holds a presidential election before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-30JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.