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EOs in Trump's second term·closes in 28mo

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Between 450 and 499

24h volume
0
4,812 lifetime
Open interest
4,321
Spread
1¢
60 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55597¢
  • ask4597¢
  • ask1395¢
  • ask995¢
  • ask1723¢
  • ask69918¢
  • ask33617¢
  • ask1516¢
spread1¢mid 16¢
  • bid6015¢
  • bid50014¢
  • bid5500¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the President signs between 450 and 499 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.

An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to, using ET timezone. Classified Executive Orders count if acknowledged by number. Executive Orders that are later revoked still count for the period they were signed. The Federal Register is the primary source; alternative sources are used only if the Federal Register explicitly states data is incomplete.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 3, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
450
cap
499
ticker
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-474
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 86¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago15¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.