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Supervolcano·closes in 283mo

When will a supervolcano next erupt?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2050

24h volume
0
35.0k lifetime
Open interest
11.0k
−90 over 7d
Spread
6¢
54 × 8.7 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 76¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1475¢
  • ask3275¢
  • ask22975¢
  • ask3.0461¢
  • ask161¢
  • ask3033¢
  • ask8231¢
  • ask8.730¢
spread6¢mid 27¢
  • bid5424¢
  • bid25523¢
  • bid10023¢
  • bid7622¢
  • bid1422¢
  • bid10022¢
  • bid20019¢
  • bid10018¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a supervolcano erupts before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXERUPTSUPER-0-50JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago29¢1bought yes
3d ago24¢1bought no
4d ago25¢3.7bought no
5d ago31¢22bought yes
5d ago31¢18bought yes
6d ago22¢64bought no
6d ago23¢3.03bought no
6d ago23¢33bought no
9d ago23¢24bought no
9d ago23¢22bought no
12d ago22¢3.4bought no
13d ago24¢13bought yes
13d ago23¢0.46bought yes
13d ago24¢65bought yes
13d ago23¢40bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.