Supervolcano·closes in 283mo

When will a supervolcano next erupt?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2050

24h volume: 5; 35.0k lifetime
Open interest: 11.0k
Spread: 6¢; 49 × 8.7 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

24%−5

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

76%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask

24¢ / 30¢

NO bid / ask

70¢ / 76¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask2877¢
ask1475¢
ask21373¢
ask3.0461¢
ask161¢
ask3033¢
ask8231¢
ask8.730¢

spread6¢mid 27¢

bid4924¢
bid26224¢
bid10024¢
bid10023¢
bid7622¢
bid1422¢
bid20019¢
bid10018¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a supervolcano erupts before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Jul 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXERUPTSUPER-0-50JAN01

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.