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Elder Scrolls VI release·closes in 3mo

Will Elder Scrolls VI be released before 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
25.8k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
+909 over 30d
Spread
2¢
1,169 × 876 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 23Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,91447¢
  • ask346¢
  • ask11736¢
  • ask46826¢
  • ask1,52512¢
  • ask16¢
  • ask1,0005¢
  • ask8764¢
spread2¢mid 3¢
  • bid1,1692¢
  • bid3,7991¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elder Scrolls VI is released on any console before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXESVI-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago2¢0.45bought no
6d ago4¢37bought yes
6d ago3¢250bought yes
7d ago2¢51bought no
7d ago2¢418bought no
8d ago2¢234bought no
8d ago2¢300bought no
10d ago3¢1bought yes
10d ago4¢144bought yes
10d ago4¢90bought yes
12d ago3¢232bought no
12d ago3¢117bought no
14d ago3¢4bought yes
14d ago4¢2.81bought yes
15d ago4¢117bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.