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Elder Scrolls VI release·closes in 16mo

Will Elder Scrolls VI be released before 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
12.5k lifetime
Open interest
5,196
Spread
8¢
5 × 25 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 88¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask96350¢
  • ask3,18549¢
  • ask4848¢
  • ask7541¢
  • ask34034¢
  • ask35330¢
  • ask43021¢
  • ask2520¢
spread8¢mid 16¢
  • bid512¢
  • bid11711¢
  • bid1542¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elder Scrolls VI is released on any console before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXESVI-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢2.25bought no
4d ago15¢6.29bought yes
5d ago6¢25bought no
5d ago15¢4.42bought no
5d ago5¢29bought no
5d ago15¢214bought no
5d ago15¢8.07bought no
5d ago15¢5.25bought no
6d ago15¢25bought no
6d ago19¢25bought yes
6d ago21¢41bought yes
6d ago18¢4.67bought yes
7d ago14¢4.33bought no
7d ago20¢9.46bought yes
7d ago19¢4.33bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.