EU social media ban for children·closes in 19mo

Will the EU enact a social media ban for children before Apr 1, 2028?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2028

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 30d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 70¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask70690¢
  • ask29488¢
  • ask20087¢
  • ask74270¢
  • ask669¢
  • ask38168¢
  • ask20038¢
spreadmid 34¢
  • bid530¢
  • bid20029¢
  • bid24610¢
  • bid855
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a social media ban for children has been enacted in the European Union after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. A social media ban for children means an EU-level measure prohibiting people below a stated age of 18 or lower from holding or accessing accounts on a class of social media platforms across the European Union. Parental consent must not bypass the prohibition for the barred age group; a separate consent-based tier for older children does not disqualify it. The following do NOT constitute enactment: Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Age verification, parental consent, platform safety requirements, content restrictions and Member-State-only laws do NOT qualify on their own. The prohibition must have legal effect, including completion of required waiting periods or implementation; adoption or publication alone does NOT qualify. Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.

opened
Aug 28 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 8, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXEUSOCIALBAN-28APR01-28APR01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.