Will the FDA approve drug?·closes in 9mo

Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume
0
1,206 lifetime
Open interest
488
Spread
5 × 500 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
83%

A YES contract costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
17%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 82¢
NO bid / ask
18¢ / 25¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask72098¢
  • ask4797¢
  • ask50082¢
spreadmid 79¢
  • bid575¢
  • bid50074¢
  • bid20033¢
  • bid78232¢
  • bid6728¢
  • bid33625¢
  • bid2,520
  • bid3,490
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves CagriSema after addressing the CRL concerns and before Jul 1, 2027. If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves CagriSema anyway before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to Yes. If CagriSema receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless of the subsequent withdrawal. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action and before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to No immediately.

opened
May 14 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-27JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago83¢100bought yes
12d ago82¢119bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.