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Fed funds rate·closes in 3mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 3.50%

24h volume
0
34.0k lifetime
Open interest
18.1k
Spread
1¢
17 × 9,952 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
98%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
2%

costs 3¢

YES bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,62999¢
  • ask9,95298¢
spread1¢mid 98¢
  • bid1797¢
  • bid1,00796¢
  • bid5,76295¢
  • bid5392¢
  • bid30091¢
  • bid15384¢
  • bid95383¢
  • bid1,47181¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
closes
Dec 9 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 9 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
3.5
ticker
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago98¢18bought yes
4d ago97¢18bought no
4d ago98¢5bought yes
4d ago98¢15bought yes
4d ago95¢15bought no
5d ago95¢72bought no
5d ago98¢10bought yes
5d ago95¢42bought no
5d ago97¢21bought no
6d ago97¢704bought yes
6d ago97¢1bought yes
6d ago97¢549bought yes
7d ago95¢31bought no
7d ago96¢31bought no
7d ago95¢109bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.