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Fed funds rate·closes in 3mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 4.00%

24h volume
36
24.7k lifetime
Open interest
17.0k
+36 over 24h
Spread
1¢
1,945 × 2,632 at the touch
24h range
84¢ – 84¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
84%−1

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
16%

costs 16¢

YES bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
24h low 84¢24h high 84¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢volSep 20, 9:49 AMSep 21, 5:10 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
closes
Dec 9 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 9 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXFED-26DEC-T4.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago84¢26bought no
9h ago84¢5bought no
11h ago84¢5bought no
1d ago85¢1bought yes
1d ago85¢28bought no
1d ago84¢19bought no
2d ago85¢5.85bought yes
2d ago85¢0.15bought yes
3d ago83¢16bought no
3d ago84¢1.67bought no
3d ago84¢6.68bought no
3d ago84¢1bought no
3d ago84¢1.05bought no
3d ago84¢1.9bought no
3d ago84¢1.67bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.