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Fed funds rate·closes in 3mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
1,031
22.1k lifetime
Open interest
16.4k
+379 over 24h
Spread
1¢
386 × 11 at the touch
24h range
35¢ – 40¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%+5

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 60¢
24h low 35¢24h high 40¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volSep 20, 7:01 AMSep 21, 6:03 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask21848¢
  • ask17747¢
  • ask7446¢
  • ask2845¢
  • ask2244¢
  • ask1343¢
  • ask1342¢
  • ask1141¢
spread1¢mid 41¢
  • bid38640¢
  • bid8839¢
  • bid1,01038¢
  • bid1,00437¢
  • bid2736¢
  • bid18035¢
  • bid2,02634¢
  • bid3,87233¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
closes
Dec 9 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 9 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
4.25
ticker
KXFED-26DEC-T4.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago40¢10bought yes
4h ago40¢200bought yes
4h ago40¢1bought yes
4h ago39¢11bought yes
4h ago39¢166bought yes
5h ago39¢24bought yes
5h ago38¢136bought yes
5h ago39¢17bought yes
5h ago39¢33bought yes
5h ago39¢0.01bought yes
5h ago39¢0.12bought yes
5h ago39¢4.18bought yes
5h ago39¢29bought yes
5h ago39¢0.41bought yes
5h ago38¢8bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.