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Fed funds rate·closes in 3mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
80
3,585 lifetime
Open interest
2,763
+1,285 over 7d
Spread
3¢
5,200 × 1,044 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+3

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
closes
Dec 9 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 9 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXFED-26DEC-T4.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago4¢22bought yes
8h ago4¢2.59bought yes
12h ago5¢52bought yes
12h ago4¢2.59bought yes
3d ago1¢2.49bought no
3d ago1¢2.58bought no
3d ago1¢0.19bought no
3d ago1¢7.22bought no
3d ago1¢6.52bought no
3d ago4¢3bought no
3d ago5¢227bought yes
4d ago5¢3bought yes
4d ago5¢19bought yes
4d ago5¢22bought yes
4d ago5¢327bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.