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Fed funds rate·closes in 3mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 5.00%

24h volume
0
1,621 lifetime
Open interest
970
Spread
2¢
0 × 387 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3969¢
  • ask2178¢
  • ask5,0447¢
  • ask1,0176¢
  • ask285¢
  • ask2164¢
  • ask8163¢
  • ask3872¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 9 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 9 · 7:05 PM UTC
    floor
    5
    ticker
    KXFED-26DEC-T5.00
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 21 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    16d ago2¢154bought yes
    1mo ago2¢20bought yes
    1mo ago1¢19bought yes
    1mo ago1¢4.46bought no
    1mo ago1¢1bought no
    1mo ago1¢284bought no
    1mo ago1¢0.31bought no
    1mo ago2¢0.69bought no
    1mo ago2¢22bought no
    1mo ago2¢0.31bought no
    1mo ago2¢3bought no
    1mo ago3¢0.31bought yes
    2mo ago1¢200bought no
    2mo ago1¢0.46bought no
    2mo ago2¢1bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.