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Fed funds rate·closes in 1mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 4.00%

24h volume
4,572
51.4k lifetime
Open interest
28.1k
Spread
2¢
11 × 46 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
54%−4

A YES contract costs 55¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
46%

costs 47¢

YES bid / ask
53¢ / 55¢
NO bid / ask
45¢ / 47¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50067¢
  • ask7166¢
  • ask8.0165¢
  • ask4,99359¢
  • ask15458¢
  • ask0.0157¢
  • ask1,83556¢
  • ask4655¢
spread2¢mid 54¢
  • bid1153¢
  • bid5552¢
  • bid24151¢
  • bid20.0k50¢
  • bid4148¢
  • bid61447¢
  • bid6846¢
  • bid35045¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
closes
Oct 28 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXFED-26OCT-T4.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago54¢20bought no
5h ago55¢2.04bought no
5h ago55¢1.39bought no
5h ago55¢39bought no
5h ago55¢2.1bought no
5h ago56¢8.42bought no
5h ago56¢0.01bought no
5h ago56¢0.08bought no
5h ago56¢4.27bought no
5h ago56¢0.28bought no
5h ago56¢1.01bought no
5h ago56¢0.73bought no
5h ago57¢1.58bought no
5h ago57¢1.63bought no
5h ago57¢1.68bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.