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Fed funds rate·closes in 1mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
105
14.4k lifetime
Open interest
12.6k
+10.7k over 7d
Spread
2¢
0 × 290.8k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%+1

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10014¢
  • ask30010¢
  • ask357¢
  • ask686¢
  • ask5,0725¢
  • ask1154¢
  • ask10.3k3¢
  • ask290.8k2¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 28 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
    floor
    4.25
    ticker
    KXFED-26OCT-T4.25
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    14h ago2¢11bought yes
    14h ago1¢2.79bought yes
    14h ago1¢0.46bought yes
    14h ago1¢1.41bought yes
    18h ago1¢25bought yes
    18h ago1¢8.56bought yes
    18h ago1¢2.52bought yes
    18h ago1¢8.92bought yes
    19h ago1¢5bought no
    19h ago1¢3.86bought no
    19h ago1¢2.24bought no
    22h ago1¢7.7bought no
    22h ago1¢8.67bought no
    22h ago2¢16bought yes
    1d ago1¢4bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.