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Fed funds rate·closes in 1mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
10
5,846 lifetime
Open interest
4,105
+10 over 24h
Spread
1¢
0 × 20 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 4:34 PMSep 21, 9:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask238¢
  • ask567¢
  • ask226¢
  • ask985¢
  • ask3,9184¢
  • ask5,0163¢
  • ask55.8k2¢
  • ask201¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 6, 2025 · 2:30 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 28 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
    floor
    4.5
    ticker
    KXFED-26OCT-T4.50
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 21 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4h ago1¢10bought yes
    3d ago1¢760bought no
    4d ago2¢20bought yes
    5d ago2¢599bought yes
    5d ago2¢1,000bought yes
    5d ago2¢740bought yes
    5d ago2¢1,000bought yes
    5d ago2¢147bought yes
    5d ago1¢45bought yes
    1mo ago1¢1bought no
    1mo ago1¢1bought no
    1mo ago1¢2bought no
    1mo ago1¢200bought no
    1mo ago2¢1bought yes
    2mo ago1¢400bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.