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Fed funds rate·closes in 7mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 0.25%

24h volume
0
2,198 lifetime
Open interest
567
+2 over 7d
Spread
8¢
52 × 0.18 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 99¢
NO bid / ask
1¢ / 9¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask0.1899¢
spread8¢mid 95¢
  • bid5291¢
  • bid3.390¢
  • bid13478¢
  • bid177¢
  • bid1875¢
  • bid5560¢
  • bid93659¢
  • bid2657¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
0.25
ticker
KXFED-27APR-T0.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago99¢2bought yes
7d ago88¢57bought no
27d ago99¢4.74bought yes
27d ago99¢2.32bought yes
27d ago99¢7.66bought yes
27d ago99¢3.32bought yes
27d ago99¢7.84bought yes
27d ago99¢26bought yes
27d ago99¢0.91bought yes
27d ago98¢113bought yes
27d ago97¢25bought yes
27d ago95¢9.69bought yes
27d ago97¢47bought yes
27d ago99¢44bought yes
27d ago96¢47bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.