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Fed funds rate·closes in 7mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 0.50%

24h volume
0
2,739 lifetime
Open interest
1,131
Spread
19¢
36 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 19¢

YES bid / ask
81¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 19¢
Recent buying61% YES · 39% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid3681¢
    • bid1580¢
    • bid6472¢
    • bid6571¢
    • bid170¢
    • bid5260¢
    • bid3659¢
    • bid7254¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.50% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Apr 28, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
    floor
    0.5
    ticker
    KXFED-27APR-T0.50
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 12 trades, 61% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    27d ago99¢1.72bought yes
    27d ago99¢1.57bought yes
    27d ago99¢7.02bought yes
    27d ago99¢1.71bought yes
    27d ago99¢3.1bought yes
    27d ago99¢2.01bought yes
    27d ago96¢32bought yes
    1mo ago86¢10bought no
    1mo ago99¢10bought yes
    2mo ago81¢23bought no
    2mo ago91¢3bought no
    2mo ago97¢2bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.