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Fed funds rate·closes in 7mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 1.25%

24h volume
0
7,962 lifetime
Open interest
2,998
+0 over 24h
Spread
7¢
94 × 88 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
91%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
9%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 9¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 20, 10:12 AMSep 20, 4:35 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16499¢
  • ask8898¢
spread7¢mid 95¢
  • bid9491¢
  • bid11163¢
  • bid5362¢
  • bid15257¢
  • bid11356¢
  • bid28955¢
  • bid37654¢
  • bid1,05153¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
1.25
ticker
KXFED-27APR-T1.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago91¢1.08bought no
4d ago95¢4bought yes
4d ago95¢4bought yes
4d ago91¢5bought no
4d ago94¢0.9bought yes
4d ago89¢5bought yes
4d ago88¢18bought yes
11d ago88¢1bought yes
13d ago86¢1.08bought yes
13d ago86¢1.06bought yes
15d ago79¢8bought yes
15d ago79¢12bought yes
15d ago80¢13bought yes
16d ago75¢4bought no
17d ago75¢4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.