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Fed funds rate·closes in 7mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 3.00%

24h volume
0
16.1k lifetime
Open interest
1,278
+0 over 24h
Spread
10¢
100 × 27 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 15¢

YES bid / ask
85¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 15¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢100¢volSep 20, 7:03 AMSep 21, 4:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,54099¢
  • ask53798¢
  • ask3497¢
  • ask5296¢
  • ask2795¢
spread10¢mid 90¢
  • bid10085¢
  • bid180¢
  • bid3167¢
  • bid166¢
  • bid5659¢
  • bid4658¢
  • bid9753¢
  • bid5852¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
3
ticker
KXFED-27APR-T3.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago80¢4bought yes
6d ago83¢4bought yes
6d ago78¢5bought yes
6d ago84¢4bought yes
6d ago75¢21bought yes
6d ago76¢22bought yes
6d ago78¢24bought yes
6d ago77¢100bought yes
6d ago78¢100bought yes
6d ago76¢22bought yes
12d ago83¢1bought no
14d ago61¢2.28bought no
14d ago60¢11bought no
15d ago69¢1bought yes
15d ago67¢2.4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.