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Fed funds rate·closes in 7mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
0
10.4k lifetime
Open interest
2,059
+0 over 24h
Spread
12¢
300 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
53%

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
47%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 60¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢volSep 20, 7:04 AMSep 21, 6:08 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2570¢
  • ask4769¢
  • ask164¢
  • ask4563¢
  • ask7262¢
  • ask0.8354¢
  • ask1953¢
  • ask552¢
spread12¢mid 46¢
  • bid30040¢
  • bid1531¢
  • bid230¢
  • bid3820¢
  • bid9019¢
  • bid44218¢
  • bid7111¢
  • bid2210¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
4.25
ticker
KXFED-27APR-T4.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago53¢10bought yes
3d ago36¢5bought no
3d ago42¢5bought yes
4d ago36¢1bought no
4d ago47¢8bought yes
5d ago45¢1bought yes
6d ago43¢3bought yes
6d ago42¢14bought yes
10d ago44¢27bought yes
10d ago45¢1.43bought yes
13d ago18¢25bought yes
13d ago18¢0.03bought no
13d ago25¢0.17bought yes
14d ago16¢5bought no
15d ago36¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.