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Fed funds rate·closes in 6mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 2.50%

24h volume
0
1,231 lifetime
Open interest
250
+53 over 90d
Spread
38¢
123 × 13 at the touch
24h range
–
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
93%

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
7%

costs 39¢

YES bid / ask
61¢ / 99¢
NO bid / ask
1¢ / 39¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volJun 24Sep 18

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1399¢
spread38¢mid 80¢
  • bid12361¢
  • bid360¢
  • bid6652¢
  • bid5051¢
  • bid99541¢
  • bid20033¢
  • bid4,04932¢
  • bid4,08931¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.50% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
2.5
ticker
KXFED-27MAR-T2.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago93¢3bought yes
18d ago95¢4bought yes
2mo ago91¢7.53bought yes
2mo ago94¢1.24bought yes
2mo ago93¢17bought yes
2mo ago92¢1bought yes
2mo ago63¢27bought no
2mo ago91¢0.6bought no
2mo ago93¢4bought yes
2mo ago94¢6bought no
2mo ago94¢1bought no
2mo ago94¢6bought no
2mo ago95¢14bought yes
2mo ago92¢3bought yes
2mo ago92¢6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.