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Fed funds rate·closes in 6mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 3.50%

24h volume
0
3,085 lifetime
Open interest
1,348
+0 over 24h
Spread
54¢
85 × 31 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
73%

A YES contract costs 89¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
27%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 89¢
NO bid / ask
11¢ / 65¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 7:03 AMSep 21, 6:45 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9.8499¢
  • ask1698¢
  • ask5497¢
  • ask590¢
  • ask3189¢
spread54¢mid 62¢
  • bid8535¢
  • bid534¢
  • bid7133¢
  • bid3732¢
  • bid15431¢
  • bid37630¢
  • bid87129¢
  • bid1623¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
3.5
ticker
KXFED-27MAR-T3.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago73¢3bought no
9d ago79¢0.01bought yes
9d ago78¢35bought yes
9d ago79¢151bought yes
12d ago43¢5bought no
18d ago76¢13bought yes
20d ago76¢4bought yes
21d ago66¢14bought yes
21d ago67¢4bought yes
1mo ago66¢8bought yes
2mo ago53¢67bought yes
2mo ago52¢100bought yes
2mo ago56¢14bought yes
2mo ago52¢9.97bought yes
2mo ago51¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.