galdor.xyz
Admin
Fed funds rate·closes in 6mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 3.75%

24h volume
0
2,445 lifetime
Open interest
792
+145 over 90d
Spread
38¢
485 × 22 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
55%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
45%

costs 45¢

YES bid / ask
55¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
7¢ / 45¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8099¢
  • ask16295¢
  • ask21294¢
  • ask2293¢
spread38¢mid 74¢
  • bid48555¢
  • bid6930¢
  • bid2129¢
  • bid1428¢
  • bid6627¢
  • bid22526¢
  • bid1,02525¢
  • bid2323¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
3.75
ticker
KXFED-27MAR-T3.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago55¢15bought no
4d ago53¢2bought yes
4d ago52¢9.58bought yes
11d ago22¢2bought no
12d ago34¢7.41bought no
12d ago35¢0.59bought no
18d ago69¢4bought yes
21d ago22¢1bought no
24d ago48¢53bought yes
24d ago47¢14bought yes
24d ago48¢37bought yes
24d ago47¢46bought yes
24d ago47¢0.07bought yes
24d ago47¢2bought yes
1mo ago54¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.