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Fed funds rate·closes in 6mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 4.00%

24h volume
0
4,226 lifetime
Open interest
978
+0 over 24h
Spread
59¢
328 × 26 at the touch
24h range
–
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 71¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 7:14 AMSep 21, 6:08 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask337.4k99¢
  • ask2,02098¢
  • ask12.2k96¢
  • ask8495¢
  • ask1,62292¢
  • ask3391¢
  • ask25089¢
  • ask2688¢
spread59¢mid 59¢
  • bid32829¢
  • bid6828¢
  • bid16827¢
  • bid126¢
  • bid5312¢
  • bid549¢
  • bid1,6228¢
  • bid1,3505¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 13, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXFED-27MAR-T4.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago75¢9bought yes
4d ago74¢1.63bought yes
4d ago74¢28bought yes
4d ago78¢15bought yes
4d ago74¢1.06bought yes
4d ago78¢17bought yes
4d ago78¢9.49bought yes
4d ago79¢264bought yes
4d ago63¢21bought yes
4d ago74¢0.24bought yes
4d ago74¢5.74bought yes
4d ago78¢4.16bought yes
4d ago54¢18bought yes
4d ago56¢20bought yes
4d ago55¢17bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.