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Fed meeting·closes in 3mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
343
114.1k lifetime
Open interest
90.0k
−29 over 24h
Spread
1¢
91 × 20.1k at the touch
24h range
30¢ – 31¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 70¢
24h low 30¢24h high 31¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 9:58 AMSep 21, 12:01 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,50042¢
  • ask2,98941¢
  • ask1,14537¢
  • ask32036¢
  • ask73635¢
  • ask60033¢
  • ask3,40032¢
  • ask20.1k31¢
spread1¢mid 31¢
  • bid9130¢
  • bid32728¢
  • bid5,00027¢
  • bid62125¢
  • bid1,24924¢
  • bid2,45020¢
  • bid3,80019¢
  • bid116¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 9 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 9 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago30¢210bought no
6h ago30¢81bought no
6h ago31¢15bought yes
11h ago31¢31bought yes
12h ago31¢6.15bought yes
1d ago30¢700bought no
1d ago31¢15bought yes
1d ago31¢3.07bought yes
1d ago30¢20bought no
1d ago31¢76bought yes
1d ago31¢31bought yes
1d ago31¢31bought yes
1d ago31¢308bought yes
1d ago31¢0.72bought yes
1d ago31¢41bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.