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Fed meeting·closed · YES

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
0
11.38M lifetime
Open interest
6.41M
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 28 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago97¢68bought yes
7d ago97¢14bought yes
7d ago96¢50bought no
7d ago96¢117bought no
7d ago97¢2,000bought yes
7d ago96¢1.25bought no
7d ago97¢0.99bought yes
7d ago96¢23bought no
7d ago97¢1.25bought yes
7d ago96¢5.19bought no
7d ago96¢100bought no
7d ago97¢47bought yes
7d ago96¢1.14bought no
7d ago96¢1.27bought no
7d ago97¢1.14bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.