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Fed meeting·closes in 1mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
28.9k
618.0k lifetime
Open interest
441.4k
Spread
1¢
16.5k × 32.8k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%+1

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 56¢

YES bid / ask
44¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 56¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask17.5k52¢
  • ask3,62051¢
  • ask1,06750¢
  • ask10.5k49¢
  • ask5,67948¢
  • ask29.3k47¢
  • ask2,54146¢
  • ask32.8k45¢
spread1¢mid 44¢
  • bid16.5k44¢
  • bid12.6k43¢
  • bid22.6k42¢
  • bid66341¢
  • bid10.7k40¢
  • bid17.0k39¢
  • bid3,30538¢
  • bid95035¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 28 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23s ago45¢0.59bought yes
6m ago45¢6.41bought yes
17m ago45¢53bought yes
37m ago45¢11bought yes
51m ago45¢5,000bought yes
51m ago45¢621bought yes
51m ago45¢2,000bought yes
51m ago45¢1,000bought yes
51m ago45¢120bought yes
51m ago45¢7,500bought yes
51m ago45¢3,759bought yes
52m ago45¢11bought yes
54m ago45¢44bought yes
55m ago44¢27bought no
55m ago44¢23bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.