galdor.xyz
Admin
Fed meeting·closes in 7mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?

YES means Cut 25bps

24h volume
15
2,962 lifetime
Open interest
2,041
+1,985 over 90d
Spread
3¢
283 × 8.2 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 28¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%−8

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
24h low 4¢24h high 28¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask64442¢
  • ask8841¢
  • ask1634¢
  • ask133¢
  • ask63018¢
  • ask1,56216¢
  • ask36215¢
  • ask8.214¢
spread3¢mid 13¢
  • bid28311¢
  • bid1,34510¢
  • bid27¢
  • bid1865¢
  • bid4764¢
  • bid5473¢
  • bid2,6702¢
  • bid97.4k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-C25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 90¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago11¢15bought no
4d ago18¢2bought yes
4d ago19¢23bought yes
4d ago19¢9.96bought yes
6d ago16¢24bought yes
6d ago15¢100bought yes
6d ago15¢31bought yes
15d ago28¢6.8bought yes
17d ago18¢28bought yes
17d ago22¢7.42bought yes
17d ago15¢8bought yes
17d ago13¢34bought yes
17d ago14¢34bought yes
17d ago15¢16bought yes
17d ago17¢24bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.