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Fed meeting·closes in 7mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?

YES means Cut >25bps

24h volume
15
3,304 lifetime
Open interest
1,722
+536 over 30d
Spread
6¢
16 × 3 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 8¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−4

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 96¢
24h low 2¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5042¢
  • ask8417¢
  • ask2315¢
  • ask2714¢
  • ask1313¢
  • ask41112¢
  • ask10011¢
  • ask310¢
spread6¢mid 7¢
  • bid164¢
  • bid313¢
  • bid4272¢
  • bid1,3291¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-C26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 90¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago4¢15bought no
6d ago8¢54bought yes
6d ago8¢4.69bought yes
16d ago4¢25bought yes
16d ago4¢1bought yes
16d ago5¢0.93bought yes
16d ago4¢4bought yes
16d ago4¢1bought yes
16d ago3¢79bought yes
16d ago3¢1bought yes
16d ago3¢30bought yes
16d ago3¢128bought yes
17d ago3¢19bought yes
17d ago3¢12bought yes
18d ago2¢40bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.