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Fed meeting·closes in 7mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
15
16.6k lifetime
Open interest
4,383
+0 over 24h
Spread
2¢
173 × 544 at the touch
24h range
63¢ – 63¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
63%−2

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
37%

costs 37¢

YES bid / ask
63¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 37¢
24h low 63¢24h high 63¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask177¢
  • ask2275¢
  • ask9.8672¢
  • ask23370¢
  • ask9669¢
  • ask38567¢
  • ask1866¢
  • ask54465¢
spread2¢mid 64¢
  • bid17363¢
  • bid68862¢
  • bid83958¢
  • bid4257¢
  • bid89653¢
  • bid30050¢
  • bid4844¢
  • bid5036¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 90¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago63¢15bought no
4d ago65¢48bought yes
4d ago64¢50bought yes
4d ago65¢2.98bought yes
12d ago63¢1.47bought yes
12d ago63¢56bought yes
12d ago63¢14bought yes
12d ago63¢10bought yes
12d ago64¢419bought yes
12d ago63¢1.47bought yes
13d ago60¢38bought no
13d ago61¢38bought no
13d ago64¢76bought yes
14d ago58¢90bought yes
14d ago58¢71bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.