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KXFEDDECISION·closes in 7mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike 25bps

24h volume
15
1,660 lifetime
Open interest
1,187
Spread
10¢
2 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%−14

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 91¢
Recent buying85% YES · 15% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5047¢
  • ask30041¢
  • ask13540¢
  • ask10936¢
  • ask4135¢
  • ask20021¢
  • ask10020¢
  • ask1519¢
spread10¢mid 14¢
  • bid29¢
  • bid3008¢
  • bid2376¢
  • bid8035¢
  • bid554¢
  • bid423¢
  • bid2032¢
  • bid2,0271¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 28, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H25
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 85% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago8¢15bought no
1d ago22¢4.31bought yes
5d ago5¢20bought no
6d ago8¢4bought yes
6d ago8¢4bought yes
6d ago8¢4bought yes
6d ago8¢4bought yes
6d ago8¢4bought yes
16d ago9¢32bought yes
16d ago9¢100bought yes
17d ago26¢3.65bought yes
18d ago7¢21bought no
18d ago8¢19bought no
18d ago10¢0.74bought yes
18d ago10¢2.26bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.