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Fed meeting·closes in 15mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?

YES means Cut >25bps

24h volume
26
11.1k lifetime
Open interest
659
+474 over 90d
Spread
10¢
16 × 772 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 8¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−4

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 97¢
24h low 4¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volJun 26Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,37746¢
  • ask14741¢
  • ask5040¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask9518¢
  • ask5417¢
  • ask1114¢
  • ask77213¢
spread10¢mid 8¢
  • bid163¢
  • bid2052¢
  • bid1,0061¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 8, 2027 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 8, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-C26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago4¢1bought no
11h ago4¢5bought no
11h ago5¢2bought no
24h ago7¢5bought no
24h ago6¢5bought no
24h ago5¢3bought no
24h ago8¢3bought no
24h ago8¢2bought no
3d ago8¢2bought no
4d ago8¢6bought no
9d ago8¢0.26bought no
17d ago9¢3bought yes
18d ago9¢20bought yes
29d ago6¢4bought no
29d ago8¢4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.