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Fed meeting·closes in 15mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike >25bps

24h volume
43
77.5k lifetime
Open interest
1,067
+755 over 90d
Spread
11¢
13 × 821 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 8¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−5

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask98649¢
  • ask7,07448¢
  • ask24547¢
  • ask16241¢
  • ask5040¢
  • ask8619¢
  • ask2417¢
  • ask82114¢
spread11¢mid 9¢
  • bid133¢
  • bid3212¢
  • bid1,0111¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 8, 2027 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 8, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago3¢5bought no
10h ago3¢8bought no
10h ago4¢5bought no
10h ago5¢2bought no
10h ago5¢5bought no
23h ago6¢5bought no
23h ago5¢3bought no
23h ago7¢5bought no
23h ago8¢4bought no
23h ago8¢1bought no
3d ago8¢2bought no
4d ago8¢6bought no
9d ago8¢0.26bought no
16d ago9¢3bought yes
18d ago9¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.