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Fed meeting·closes in 4mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike 25bps

24h volume
0
16.0k lifetime
Open interest
11.4k
+0 over 24h
Spread
2¢
500 × 6,518 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 72¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 3:10 AMSep 21, 1:05 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,49857¢
  • ask3,06356¢
  • ask15055¢
  • ask30045¢
  • ask95043¢
  • ask77936¢
  • ask1,56835¢
  • ask6,51830¢
spread2¢mid 29¢
  • bid50028¢
  • bid48627¢
  • bid1,22424¢
  • bid15023¢
  • bid31822¢
  • bid4818¢
  • bid51317¢
  • bid45916¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago31¢1bought yes
3d ago30¢1bought yes
3d ago26¢2,000bought yes
3d ago26¢500bought yes
3d ago26¢83bought yes
3d ago26¢17bought no
4d ago28¢10bought yes
4d ago29¢6.41bought yes
4d ago27¢17bought yes
4d ago23¢100bought yes
4d ago22¢10bought yes
4d ago21¢5.39bought yes
4d ago21¢12bought yes
4d ago20¢23bought yes
4d ago21¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.