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Fed meeting·closes in 4mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike >25bps

24h volume
0
6,230 lifetime
Open interest
5,525
+1,577 over 30d
Spread
1¢
13.5k × 8,463 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 3¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 2¢24h high 3¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask28236¢
  • ask30012¢
  • ask311¢
  • ask169¢
  • ask328¢
  • ask4637¢
  • ask186¢
  • ask8,4632¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid13.5k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago2¢37bought yes
1d ago2¢10bought yes
19d ago3¢20bought no
27d ago3¢1,000bought yes
27d ago3¢500bought yes
27d ago3¢30bought yes
1mo ago5¢100bought yes
1mo ago5¢100bought yes
1mo ago5¢100bought yes
1mo ago5¢100bought yes
1mo ago5¢100bought yes
1mo ago4¢3bought yes
1mo ago4¢12bought yes
1mo ago4¢26bought yes
1mo ago4¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.