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Fed meeting·closes in 13mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike 25bps

24h volume
0
8,675 lifetime
Open interest
1,138
+20 over 7d
Spread
10¢
100 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
46%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
54%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 90¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22744¢
  • ask7643¢
  • ask7542¢
  • ask241¢
  • ask30023¢
  • ask1322¢
  • ask17521¢
  • ask10020¢
spread10¢mid 15¢
  • bid10010¢
  • bid4009¢
  • bid5008¢
  • bid337¢
  • bid336¢
  • bid335¢
  • bid1674¢
  • bid4613¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 27, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 27, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago38¢2bought yes
4d ago35¢5bought yes
4d ago46¢15bought yes
19d ago3¢21bought no
19d ago9¢2bought no
19d ago8¢19bought no
19d ago5¢90bought no
19d ago6¢80bought no
19d ago5¢246bought no
19d ago20¢37bought yes
19d ago47¢24bought yes
19d ago27¢50bought yes
19d ago28¢49bought yes
19d ago46¢101bought yes
19d ago28¢40bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.