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Fed meeting·closes in 13mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike >25bps

24h volume
0
11.6k lifetime
Open interest
929
+0 over 7d
Spread
8¢
10 × 3 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 93¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask124¢
  • ask9023¢
  • ask27922¢
  • ask2521¢
  • ask42219¢
  • ask118¢
  • ask3216¢
  • ask315¢
spread8¢mid 11¢
  • bid107¢
  • bid106¢
  • bid1105¢
  • bid1104¢
  • bid103¢
  • bid1762¢
  • bid1,0151¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 27, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 27, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago7¢5bought no
19d ago16¢27bought yes
21d ago9¢3bought yes
21d ago8¢2bought yes
21d ago8¢2bought yes
21d ago8¢30bought yes
22d ago6¢4bought no
22d ago6¢23bought no
22d ago6¢9bought no
22d ago6¢3bought no
22d ago7¢2bought no
22d ago7¢3bought no
23d ago5¢0.81bought no
23d ago5¢22bought no
23d ago4¢13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.