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Fed meeting·closes in 12mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?

YES means Cut >25bps

24h volume
0
15.1k lifetime
Open interest
715
+1 over 7d
Spread
7¢
419 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 97¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20033¢
  • ask10029¢
  • ask10415¢
  • ask5714¢
  • ask3413¢
  • ask3412¢
  • ask41111¢
  • ask10010¢
spread7¢mid 6¢
  • bid4193¢
  • bid3782¢
  • bid1,2971¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Sep 15, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Sep 15, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-C26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 95¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago4¢1bought no
9d ago4¢2bought no
20d ago5¢1bought no
1mo ago4¢31bought yes
1mo ago4¢39bought yes
1mo ago3¢1bought no
1mo ago3¢4.31bought no
2mo ago3¢75bought no
2mo ago6¢28bought yes
2mo ago6¢47bought yes
2mo ago22¢1bought no
2mo ago24¢4bought no
2mo ago23¢72bought no
2mo ago23¢12bought no
2mo ago24¢28bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.