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Fed meeting·closes in 16mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2028 meeting?

YES means Cut >25bps

24h volume
0
1,970 lifetime
Open interest
250
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
2 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6,10242¢
  • ask1,15140¢
  • ask15737¢
  • ask8114¢
  • ask2211¢
  • ask3109¢
  • ask1547¢
  • ask1006¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid25¢
  • bid24¢
  • bid1023¢
  • bid3922¢
  • bid1,0461¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 26, 2028 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 26, 2028 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-28JAN-C26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 113¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago4¢2bought no
11d ago5¢2bought no
11d ago6¢2bought no
14d ago5¢31bought yes
14d ago5¢60bought yes
20d ago5¢6.88bought yes
20d ago4¢30bought yes
20d ago4¢1bought yes
20d ago4¢35bought yes
20d ago3¢30bought yes
21d ago3¢10bought no
21d ago3¢10bought no
21d ago3¢10bought no
21d ago3¢10bought no
21d ago3¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.