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Fed meeting·closes in 16mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2028 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
0
1,599 lifetime
Open interest
401
+0 over 7d
Spread
13¢
1 × 33 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 75¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 38¢

YES bid / ask
62¢ / 75¢
NO bid / ask
25¢ / 38¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask35588¢
  • ask22587¢
  • ask14786¢
  • ask30085¢
  • ask34084¢
  • ask73877¢
  • ask21576¢
  • ask3375¢
spread13¢mid 69¢
  • bid162¢
  • bid161¢
  • bid1560¢
  • bid10059¢
  • bid13458¢
  • bid7653¢
  • bid7649¢
  • bid7647¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 26, 2028 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 26, 2028 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-28JAN-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 113¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago70¢1.01bought yes
20d ago64¢0.72bought yes
20d ago63¢1bought yes
20d ago62¢4bought yes
22d ago68¢7bought yes
28d ago64¢24bought yes
1mo ago62¢23bought no
1mo ago56¢3bought no
1mo ago56¢1bought no
1mo ago56¢1bought no
1mo ago63¢23bought no
1mo ago63¢24bought no
2mo ago58¢23bought yes
2mo ago57¢23bought no
2mo ago59¢16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.