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Fed meeting·closes in 16mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2028 meeting?

YES means Hike 25bps

24h volume
0
599 lifetime
Open interest
180
Spread
23¢
100 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
19%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
81%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 94¢
Recent buying52% YES · 48% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4451¢
  • ask10750¢
  • ask30041¢
  • ask14639¢
  • ask10038¢
  • ask134¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask129¢
spread23¢mid 18¢
  • bid1006¢
  • bid4005¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid1492¢
  • bid9621¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 26, 2028 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 26, 2028 · 7:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-28JAN-H25
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago19¢5.85bought yes
22d ago11¢10bought no
23d ago13¢10bought yes
1mo ago13¢11bought no
1mo ago13¢11bought no
2mo ago12¢76bought no
2mo ago13¢34bought yes
2mo ago13¢42bought yes
2mo ago11¢8bought yes
2mo ago11¢1bought yes
2mo ago11¢10bought yes
2mo ago10¢3bought yes
2mo ago11¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.