Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2028 meeting?
YES means Hike >25bps
- 24h volume
- 20
- 2,084 lifetime
- Open interest
- 863
- −8 over 24h
- Spread
- 15¢
- 101 × 9 at the touch
- 24h range
- 4¢ – 9¢
- 30 recent trades
A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 97¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- opened
- Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 26, 2028 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 26, 2028 · 7:05 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXFEDDECISION-28JAN-H26
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 30 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10h ago | 4¢ | 12 | bought no |
| 10h ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10h ago | 6¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10h ago | 7¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10h ago | 8¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10h ago | 9¢ | 3 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 9¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 18¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 7d ago | 9¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 20d ago | 20¢ | 3 | bought yes |
| 20d ago | 20¢ | 2 | bought yes |
| 20d ago | 20¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 9¢ | 2 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 9¢ | 2 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.