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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

YES means Above 2.50%

24h volume
58
1,025 lifetime
Open interest
653
+413 over 7d
Spread
3¢
140 × 183 at the touch
24h range
95¢ – 95¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
95%+3

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
5%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 94¢
NO bid / ask
6¢ / 9¢
24h low 95¢24h high 95¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7798¢
  • ask5,00096¢
  • ask18395¢
  • ask18394¢
spread3¢mid 93¢
  • bid14091¢
  • bid44190¢
  • bid1585¢
  • bid2080¢
  • bid5159¢
  • bid5058¢
  • bid6,93557¢
  • bid2,25856¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
2.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T2.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9h ago95¢52bought yes
9h ago95¢5.24bought yes
3d ago92¢77bought yes
3d ago91¢3.91bought yes
3d ago92¢1.52bought yes
3d ago91¢1.09bought yes
4d ago83¢4bought no
4d ago85¢5bought no
4d ago63¢22bought no
5d ago90¢300bought no
5d ago90¢50bought no
11d ago90¢24bought yes
11d ago89¢55bought yes
17d ago88¢25bought yes
17d ago88¢33bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.