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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.75%?

YES means Above 3.75%

24h volume
235
11.0k lifetime
Open interest
4,703
Spread
1¢
4.78 × 4,996 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%−1

A YES contract costs 80¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 21¢

YES bid / ask
79¢ / 80¢
NO bid / ask
20¢ / 21¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22491¢
  • ask1486¢
  • ask16685¢
  • ask10984¢
  • ask5083¢
  • ask26182¢
  • ask9581¢
  • ask4,99680¢
spread1¢mid 80¢
  • bid4.7879¢
  • bid25778¢
  • bid5277¢
  • bid9376¢
  • bid16875¢
  • bid11874¢
  • bid1873¢
  • bid872¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
3.75
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T3.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago80¢5.43bought no
5h ago81¢0.28bought yes
5h ago80¢0.77bought yes
5h ago81¢90bought yes
5h ago81¢14bought yes
5h ago82¢16bought yes
7h ago80¢1.23bought yes
9h ago78¢8.86bought no
9h ago78¢2bought no
9h ago79¢1bought no
9h ago78¢68bought no
9h ago79¢11bought no
9h ago79¢4bought no
9h ago80¢1.05bought no
9h ago80¢2.04bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.