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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.25%?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
721
5,112 lifetime
Open interest
2,118
Spread
13¢
17 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%+15

A YES contract costs 69¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 44¢

YES bid / ask
56¢ / 69¢
NO bid / ask
31¢ / 44¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5582¢
  • ask22080¢
  • ask0.7875¢
  • ask10073¢
  • ask12272¢
  • ask2171¢
  • ask1.7770¢
  • ask1569¢
spread13¢mid 63¢
  • bid1756¢
  • bid3855¢
  • bid8550¢
  • bid4749¢
  • bid13748¢
  • bid10147¢
  • bid135¢
  • bid530¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16m ago70¢2.63bought yes
16m ago70¢1.74bought yes
20m ago56¢4.37bought no
1h ago67¢1.4bought yes
1h ago61¢0.38bought yes
1h ago67¢0.53bought yes
1h ago67¢0.33bought yes
1h ago61¢1bought yes
1h ago62¢1bought yes
1h ago63¢3bought yes
3h ago53¢0.38bought no
3h ago54¢1bought no
4h ago58¢1bought no
4h ago58¢8.88bought no
4h ago57¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.